On the Problem of Induction

A reappraisal of Nelson Goodmans Concept of the New Riddle of InductionThe development of the method of innovation has been reclusive to the presentation and antecedent of disperses. At the initial level of its development, it has been privy to the old distribute of consequence discovered by Hume. After the solution of the former pervade, however, a new riddle of creation was discovered by Nelson Goodman. In lieu of this, this paper opts to consider the development of the method of induction as a methodology defined by Hume and Goodmans institution of the Inductive method.Induction refers to a method of reason by which a frequent law or principle is inferred from observed particular instances (Flew 171). The method of inducive inference may be considered as the primary means through with(predicate) which justifications are vocalised to show the relationship of essay towards particular assumptions (Norton 2). The extremity of induction, in this sense, may be seen to a rise whenever we none that evidence lends deem to a hypothesis tour in the process failing to read its deductive certainty. It was such a readying of the method of induction that enabled the predilection of the first riddle. What follows is a presentation of the main arguments of the aforesaid(prenominal) riddle as formulated by David Hume.Hume argued that since no obligatory connections exists amidst empirical phenomena, it is al authoritys possible that a future expression will prove our inferences do by no matter how appealing it may have been or how high up supported by past observations. This puzzle, in the more recent verbalisms of the difficulty has been referred to as the uniformity principle in this sense the drop of such uniformity. fit to the argument, nature has no uniformity. If such is the case it thereby follows that there is no voucher that which ensure the consistency of mans most slight predictions. It might be argued that such an assumption has never been denied in the formulation of predictions however there has been agreement regarding the get outs of such an agreement or lack thereof deep down the province of induction.To some, it means that induction is never reasoned or reassert, while to others, it means that induction simply calls for different standards of rigour (Landesman 164). The latter assimilate strips the aforesaid(prenominal) riddle Humean riddle of its problematic context. This is evident if one considers that since the observes of deductive validity are inapplicable to induction, it can non be a problem that inducive inference is unavoidably attended by the possibility that a future observation may prove it wrong (Goodman 4). The old riddle is then reject because it cannot possibly be the genuine problem of induction.Fact, Fiction, and Forecast present Goodmans construal of what he refers to as the new riddle of induction. After refuting the old riddle of induction the refutation of which is evid ent in the former paragraph, Goodman proceeds to insinuate what he takes to be the genuine problem of induction and its tentative solution. The problem of induction, he writes, is a problem of demonstrating the difference between valid and shut-in predictions (Goodman 4). harmonize to Goodman, a prediction is valid if it conforms to a valid rule of induction, and a rule is valid if it yields valid predictions.He acknowledges that such an assumption is characterized by circularity however he notes that it is important to perceive such a conception of the problem in bournes of the conceptions of justifications for arguments. Goodman notes that inductive predictions ground on past regularities work better than those based on any other alternative. If such is the case, the rules for formulating predictions must be constructed in such a way that they will coincide with common practices of inductive reasoning.This, on the other hand, is farther developed by the quality of predictions, which it produces. This is clearly explicated by Rubenstein as he notes, the centerpiece of a valid inductive logic according to Goodman is its reliance on past regularities, and the prescriptive mandate of inductive validity is inseparable from a descriptive account of how inductive judgments are commonly made (39). This has been the result of Goodmans dissolution of the old riddle of induction. What follows this is Goodmans explication that the most assure solution of the aforementioned riddle is untenable. It is through the introduction of such untenability that Goodman presents what he perceives to be the new riddle of induction.Goodman presents two hypotheses that are to be turn to through the use of the inductive method. One says that all emeralds are fountain and the other says that all emeralds are grue, where grue is said to apply to all things examined onwards t just in case they are chiliad plainly to other things just in case they are dirty (Goodman 10). some(pr enominal) hypotheses seem to be equally well supported by the evidence all emeralds examined prior to t have been found to be green and grue. However, the two hypotheses are mutually exclusive. If emeralds are grue, they will be blue at t and thereafter, but if the alternative hypothesis is correct, they will be green. Thus, we are left with the paradox that Goodman christened the new riddle of induction.We cannot, after all, vindicate induction by appealing to past regularities. However, the reason, according to Goodman, is not the lack of the elusive uniformity principle, but the previously unrecognized ubiquity of regularities. According to Goodman, regularities exist where one finds them. In relation to this Goodman states that one, however, finds them everywhere (12). If such is the case, it so follows that it is useless to base inductive validity on past regularities since it is not possible to predict and hence distinguish which regularities are valid and invalid.At this po int, I would like to present a summary of the aforementioned discussion. In the aforementioned discussion, Goodman believes that the old riddle the Humean riddle/the uniformity principle has been dissolved and that induction is justified by past regularities. The only remaining difficulty he sees, however, lies in finding a rule for distinguishing between regularities that do and do not yield valid inductive predictions. As was noted in the preceding(prenominal) discussion, the possibility of such is not possible. This is evident if one considers that regularity necessitates the accompaniment of acts of inductive inference. Therefore, the genuine problem of induction cannot be the distinction between the distinction of regularities that do or do not yield valid inductive predictions since the specification of such necessitates the formulation of inductive inferences.As I reckon, Goodman aforementioned conception fails to account for the process of induction. It is important to no te that Goodman contends that induction begins with regularity. Rubenstein notes, induction does not begin with regularity it ends with it (44). The mischance to consider this leads Goodman to misconstrue the problem of induction. It is important to note that experience of reality does not necessarily set out with regularities but rather with individual observations. The role of induction, in this sense lies in providing us with justified methods that allows us to posit the observations that we will account for as regularities. Goodman, however, failed to account for this.In addition to this, it is important to note that such a failure can also be traced to Goodmans assumptions regarding the process in which individuals formulate inferences. Goodmans error is compounded when he makes a distinction between identifying regularity and projecting it. Once we have decided that our observations represent regularity, it is automatically intercommunicate in both temporal directions. Thi s is, in fact, what we mean by applying the term regularity to our data.Furthermore, Stich and Nisbett contend that the equilibrium with inductive practices that Goodman posited as a necessary aspect in formulating a valid inductive methodology is neither necessary nor sufficient for a rule of inductive inference to be justified (194). They argue that such an assumption fails to consider that human subjects regularly and systematically make invalid inferences and that there an instance wherein human reasoning enables an individual to accept invalid rules and reject valid ones that ought to govern the inference at hand (Stitch and Nisbett 194).In summary, the aforementioned paper presented Goodmans arguments in relation to his conception of the new riddle in induction. such a riddle, however, under scrutiny may be seen as based upon a mistaken assumption of the justification process of beliefs that necessitates the introduction of entropy garnered through the method of induction. This is evident, for example, if one considers the manner in which observations enable the formulation of regularities and not the other way around. An analysis of Goodmans supposed riddle of induction thereby leaves the reader wondering if such a riddle may be considered as a valid concern for the adherents of the inductive methodology.Works CitedFlew, Anthony. A Dictionary of Philosophy. capital of the United Kingdom Pan Books, 1983.Goodman, Nelson. Fact, Fiction, and Forecast. Massachussets Harvard University Press, 1983.Landesman, Charles. Skepticism The Central Issues. London Blackwell Publishing, 2002.Rubenstein, Arthur. Induction, Grue Emeralds and Lady Macbeths Fallacy. The Philosophical Quarterly 48.190 (Jan. 1998) 37-49.Stitch, Stephen and Richard Nisbett. Justification and the Psychology of piece Reasoning. Philosophy of Science 47.2 (Jun. 1980) 188-202.